Why new street trees die: what three published studies report
Death rates and causes for newly planted street trees as reported by studies from Oakland, New York City and Philadelphia, plus two earlier surveys the Oakland paper cites, with the sample and the years of each, so the numbers are read as the authors measured them.
Checked against the sources at the bottom of this page on October 9, 2026. Rules, fees and pay change: the source has the last word.
This page attributes each figure to its paper and does not blend them. The studies cover different cities, decades and planting programmes. It reports what they found and gives no watering schedule or planting method. Establishment standards are on the planting and soil standards page.
The studies
| Study | Sample | What the authors reported |
|---|---|---|
| Nowak, McBride and Beatty, Journal of Arboriculture, 1990 (USDA Forest Service Treesearch record) | 254 black locust, 199 southern magnolia and 27 London plane trees planted along one boulevard from Berkeley into Oakland, California; measured in 1986, 1987 and 1988 | After two years 34 percent were dead or removed; average annual mortality was 19 percent, with no significant difference among species or years. Only 62 percent of trees remained alive and not vandalized; at least 11 percent had been vandalized and 71 percent of those were dead. Mortality across census tracts ranged from 15 to 56 percent. Apartments and public greenspaces had high mortality next to them; single family houses and rapid transit stations had low. |
| Lu and colleagues, Cities and the Environment, 2010 (USDA Forest Service Treesearch record) | 45,094 trees planted by New York City Parks between 1999 and 2003; a random sample of 13,405 surveyed in the summers of 2006 and 2007 | An earlier analysis found 91.3 percent alive after two years. In the sample, 74.3 percent were alive when surveyed and the rest standing dead or missing. The authors report that the highest mortality occurs in the first few years after planting and that land use had a significant effect. |
| Roman, Berland, Nix and Dentice, Arboriculture and Urban Forestry, March 2026 | 2,884 street trees tracked over several years with street-level imagery | 7.5 percent dead or removed by the first summer after planting, and a mortality rate of 3.5 percent between the third and fourth summers. Higher survival was associated with less impervious surface around the tree, lower social vulnerability in the neighbourhood and fall planting rather than spring. The authors point to planting site enhancements and establishment maintenance as management activities that could improve outcomes. |
Causes named in the Oakland paper's literature review
The 1990 paper summarises two earlier studies. A survey of US urban tree managers by Beatty and Heckman found an inverse relationship between city size and tree survival and listed the five most common problems with urban tree growth as insufficient water, nutrient deficiency, vandalism, soil compaction and mechanical injury. A study of city trees in northern England by Gilbertson and Bradshaw found the most frequent cause of newly planted tree mortality was water and nutrient stress at 56 percent, followed by vandalism at 18 percent, tree guard girdling at 12 percent, soil compaction at 9 percent and improper staking and tying at 5 percent. The Oakland paper says much of the mortality is likely due to automobile damage, citing a personal communication, and that at least 23 percent of the mortality is due to vandalism.
Limits the sources state or imply
- The Oakland sample is one boulevard and three species, measured over two years in the 1980s.
- The New York abstract gives two different survival figures, one from an earlier analysis at two years and one from a survey of a random sample at an age the abstract does not state, so they are not a single survival curve.
- The Philadelphia authors worked mainly from street-level imagery, using volunteer field monitoring records where imagery was missing for the first summer, and the planting data are not public.
Sources
- Nowak, McBride and Beatty, Newly planted street tree growth and mortality, Journal of Arboriculture 16(5), 1990, USDA Forest Service Treesearch, read October 9, 2026
- Nowak, McBride and Beatty, Newly planted street tree growth and mortality, full text on Arboriculture and Urban Forestry, read October 9, 2026
- Lu and colleagues, Biological, social, and urban design factors affecting young street tree mortality in New York City, Cities and the Environment 3(1), 2010, USDA Forest Service Treesearch, read October 9, 2026
- Roman, Berland, Nix and Dentice, Virtually tracking planted urban tree survival with street-level imagery, Arboriculture and Urban Forestry 52(2), March 2026, read October 9, 2026